The present-day U.S. military qualifies by any measure as highly professional, much more so than its Cold War predecessor. Yet the purpose of today’s professionals is not to preserve peace but to fight unending wars in distant places. Intoxicated by a post-Cold War belief in its own omnipotence, the United States allowed itself to be drawn into a long series of armed conflicts, almost all of them yielding unintended consequences and imposing greater than anticipated costs. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. forces have destroyed many targets and killed many people. Only rarely, however, have they succeeded in accomplishing their assigned political purposes. . . . [F]rom our present vantage point, it becomes apparent that the “Revolution of ‘89” did not initiate a new era of history. At most, the events of that year fostered various unhelpful illusions that impeded our capacity to recognize and respond to the forces of change that actually matter.

Andrew Bacevich


Sunday, February 1, 2015

News of the Day for Sunday, Feb. 1, 2015

Officials claim 3 foreign insurgents killed by an Afghan military air strike  in Badakhshan province. The dead are said to include a Tajik and a Chechen. This is the first I have heard of Afghan forces using air power. The article does not say what type of aircraft was used.

The three DoD contractors killed earlier this week are identified as employees of Praetorian Standard, of North Carolina. They were Walter D. Fisher of North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Jason D. Landphair of Fayetteville, North Carolina; and Mathew E. Fineran of Summerville, South Carolina.

Protests continue in Kabul against Charlie Hebdo and 24 people are injured, including 17 police injured by thrown rocks and 7 injured protesters, apparently by police gunfire.

Eight cabinet ministers and the chief of the National Directorate of Security will be sworn in. However, 9 additional cabinet nominees have yet to be confirmed.

This is interesting. The Taliban claim to have captured IS leader Mullah Abdul-Rauf Kazim and 45 followers in Helmand province.

Meanwhile, it is reported that many Taliban fighters are going over to IS. According to this report, the motive is not so much greater ideological affinity as it is frustration over the Taliban's failure to establish governance over substantial territory.

A protest in Herat over a parliamentary decision to strip power from provincial councils. As I read this, provincial councils had a monitoring role over federal government activities, which has been eliminated. This is an issue of federalism, concerning the relative power of the federal government vs. the provinces.  However, the issue here seems to focus on corruption and governmental integrity, rather than policy, with each side claiming the other acts out of illicit self-interest.

Pakistan continues to arrest Afghans who are in the country illegally.




Thursday, January 29, 2015

Update for Thursday, January 29, 2015

As a reminder, I am now generally posting only on days where there are significant developments. The daily drumbeat of bombings, assassinations, and skirmishes goes on, but we're no longer trying to fully document it. (Which we never were in the first place since we depend on what is reported in the English language media.)

But, significant developments today.

Three U.S. contractors, and one Afghan, are killed in a shooting at Kabul International Airport. Some sources are describing this as an insider attack, including Reuters which says the shooter was an Afghan soldier. Although the exact role of the "contractors" has not been publicly described, Reuters calls them "advisers," while Russian media are calling them "military contractors." Note that while U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan is advertised as 10,500, the presence of an undisclosed number of mercenaries obviously changes that picture.

And speaking of undisclosed: The U.S. military has now declared that basic information in the regular reports of the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction is henceforth classified. This includes the amount of U.S. taxpayer dollars being spent on salaries, training and equipment for the Afghan military, and even the size of the Afghan military and police, attrition rates, and the cost of U.S.-funded infrastructure projects. Gen. Campbell claims that making this information public could somehow benefit the enemy. Lawmakers of both parties are unhappy.

Speaking for myself:  In fact, of course, the only people they are keeping secrets from are the American people. After spending $6 trillion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, you would think the American people would have a right to know what they are getting for their money, and how it is still being spent. But given that both interventions have been catastrophic failures, convincing you to continue ponying up is challenging. If they stop telling us what is happening, will we forget about the whole thing? We shall see.




Sunday, January 25, 2015

Update for Sunday, January 25, 2015

Afghan ambassador to Pakistan announces Pakistan will repatriate 1.6 million Afghan refugees, based on an agreement among the countries and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. However, there does not appear to be any timeline for the process.

At the same time, Pakistan is arresting and apparently deporting unregistered refugees.

Generally, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan appear to be thawing, with high level military contacts and evidence that Pakistan will no longer support Afghan insurgents. NATO is trying to faciliate increased cooperation between the two countries.  However, it appears India is skeptical of this and is concerned about its investments in Afghanistan as foreign troops leave.

Since I'm not posting every day, of course we are no longer recording all reported security incidents. But just to reflect the general level of violence I will link to recent reports on days I do post.

Car bomb near Kabul airport (now renamed after Hamid Karzai) injures 2, results in temporary closure of the airport.

Motorcycle bomb injures 2 police, 1 civilian in Panjwaee, Kandahar province. This same report says police found 2 bodies elsewhere in Kandahar, their killers unknown; and discusses the appearance of IS in Zabul and Helmand. (Seems a bit of a non-sequitur but there it is.)

 Two border police killed, 2 injured by an explosion in Jalalabad on Saturday.

Also on Saturday, gunmen kill a police officer in Lashkargah.

Protest grow in Zabul and Farah against depictions of the prophet by the French magazine Charlie Hebdo.

Ghani accedes to parliament and will replace cabinet nominees with dual citizenship.

Cabinet nominees are presenting their platforms to parliament in pursuit of votes of confidence. Parliament will hear all the nominees before starting to vote.

From our friend Chet, a CNN feature on depression and suicide by military and veterans' spouses and family members.






Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Update for Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Political turmoil continues as parliament rejects 7 cabinet nominees over dual citizenship. These include the nominees for Interior and Foreign Minister. Of course, given the decades of war and the period of Taliban rule, many educated Afghans have been expatriates. The nominees can be considered if they drop their second citizenship.

Human Rights Watch reports attacks and threats against journalists in Afghanistan are on the rise, with 2014 being the most violent year on record. "An already fragile media freedom has been jeopardised still further by intimidation and violence from both state and non-state figures, combined with a lack of government protection and waning international support."

NYT reports that internal divisions in the Taliban have created an opening for IS. This has been noted before, but the NYT goes into more depth. It is not entirely clear whether IS just provides a new brand for some Taliban factions in Helmand, or if there really are strong ties with the organization in Syria and Iraq and an influx of foreigners.

India offers a workaround to the Pakistani blockade of Afghan exports.

And of course, the low-level war continues with 8 civilians dead in Ghazni, and 4 ANA soldiers killed in Kunduz along with a claimed 23 militants. (As always, no way to confirm these typically lopsided casualty reports.)

Sunday, January 18, 2015

News of the Day for Sunday, January 18, 2015

(I actually would have posted sooner but I've had Internet access problems.)

Five Pakistani men are arrested in Afghanistan in connection with the Peshawar school massacre. Pakistani says it has detained additional people on its own territory.

Four Afghan Public Protection Force soldiers are killed, 14 injured in a suicide bombing in Helmand. The APPF is a special unit that protects foreign compounds and provides highway escort.

A district education director is murdered in Ghor province.

Army spokesman announces yet another "clearing" operation in Dangam, Kunar, on Friday, claims great success. (This battle has been going on for weeks, and is always being won. We shall see.)

A poll finds widespread distrust in the peace process, with many believing that High Peace Council members do not really want peace.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are in a dispute over fees charged to Afghan importers at the port of Karachi. Lest we forget, Afghanistan is landlocked and must depend on a viable relationship with Pakistan for access to world markets.

A death sentence is pronounced for the killing of two Finnish aid workers last July.

Taliban shoot down a helicopter, killing the ex-boyfrend of Britney Spears. (No, I'm not making this up.) John Sundahl, 44, was working as a private helicopter pilot. He met Britney in AA and helped her get sober.
 
Unknown armed men murder journalist Aqil Waqar in Hajian village of Batikot district, Nangarhar province.

Five health care workers are abducted in Herat.

Two civilians are injured in an explosion in Kandahar.

Nominee for Minister of Agriculture Mohammed Yaqub Haidari is wanted for tax evasion in Estonia. 

Afghan National Army commander General Murad Ali Murad confirms that Islamic State is active in Afghanistan.




Monday, January 12, 2015

News of the Day for Monday, January 12, 2015

At long last, president Ghani announces cabinet nominees. The 3 month delay was apparently caused by disputes between Ghani and Abdullah. There are as yet no nominees for Attorney General or Chief Justice.

Reuters gives a run-down of the nominees for major positions. There is certainly plenty of political diversity, based on my quick reading. NYT discusses the horse trading behind this and suggests that the national unity government will continue to be stressed.

After previous denials, Afghan officials confirm that IS agents are operating in Helmand.

A police officer kills the district governor and police chief of Nawzad, Helmand, and injures other senior officials. TOLO calls the district Nad Ali. The place has quite a history.

Institute for War and Peace Reporting discusses the challenges faced by NGOs in Afghanistan.


Sunday, January 11, 2015

News of the Day for Sunday, January 11, 2015

A couple of stories today indicating that some militants in Af-Pak are adopting the Islamic State brand, and that foreigners identifying with IS are coming to the region. First, a video posted on-line shows a former Taliban spokesman addressing a crowd to announce that various Afghan and Pakistani leaders have pledged allegiance to IS. A Pakistani soldier is then beheaded with a machete.

Meanwhile, the police chief of southern Zabul says that Arab militants have entered the area, with their families. It is not clear how extensive support for IS is in the region or how seriously one should take all this.

Residents of Sangin, Helmand, also say IS is operating in the area.

Drone strike kills 8 in Nangarhar. But that doesn't count as "combat."

District intelligence agency chief and another person are injured by a roadside bomb in Herat.

Afghan national (association) football coach is stabbed, hospitalized. Unclear if the motive was personal or political.

Another one of those massive body count stories, with provincial police chief claiming 183 insurgents killed in month-long operation in Dangam, Kunar,  vs. 6 Afghan government dead. You'll have to decide if this is credible.