Update for Sunday, January 31, 2016

Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction reports that government controls only 72% of territory. Afghan government spokespersons dispute the analysis, but concede they have faced challenges with the withdrawal of NATO forces from combat.

U.S. SecDef Ashton Carter expects a difficult year and for U.S. forces to remain for a long time, as if they haven't already.

Abdullah is in India where he will meet with PM Modi and is expected to ask for more military assistance.

Journalist killed in Nangarhar may have been a victim of self-styled IS. Remember that this is really a breakaway faction of the Taliban. Whether they have operational links with the organization based in Raqqa, Syria is unclear.

Andrew Bacevich, in The Nation, discusses the endless cycle of failure that has become the U.S. military posture. It's all about vested interests, not finding a way to act effectively in the world.

Iraq has less than half of the $1.65 billion is says it needs for humanitarian relief, and the UN makes an emergency appeal for $861 million to fill the gap.

Human Rights Watch accuses Shiite militias of atrocities in Muqdadiya following bombings claimed by IS.

A member of Iraq's Commission of Integrity accuses all politicians, including himself, of corruption. Well, at lest he's honest about his dishonesty.

Balad Air Base, supposedly handed back to Iraq after the U.S. declared the war over, is once again a major U.S. base. The Air Force has given a contract worth $271 million to Sallyport Global Holdings for security and support services at Balad over the next year.

Oh yeah, the Mosul Dam. The whole question of winning back control of Mosul would become moot if the city ceases to exist.

Update for Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Taliban blow up electric power pylons, cutting the supply of electricity from Uzbekistan to Kabul. More than 60% of Kabul's electricity is imported, so large areas of the capital are blacked out. It will take weeks to restore power. Electricity is essential for heat and cooking. The sabotage occurred in Baghlan province where fighting is underway.

WaPo reports that U.S. military commanders expect U.S. troops to remain in Afghanistan for decades. You read that right.

And, in a major development, Bloomberg reports that the Kurdistan Regional Government will hold a referendum on independence. They say this doesn't mean secession if necessarily going to happen, but that the people will decide. However, the result is a foregone conclusion. This suggests that Ankara continues to be tolerant of Kurdish independence despite the resumption of hostilities with the PKK, because the landlocked country cannot function without access to world commerce through Turkey. While there is nothing Baghdad can do to prevent secession, it remains to be seen whether Kurdistan will gain widespread recognition from the world community. This could be a dangerous move, especially as Kurdistan's economy is in shambles due to low oil prices, the cost of war with IS, and the million or so refugees on its soil. Kurdistan will need substantial international assistance. It is unclear what input they have received from the U.S. on this move; Kurdistan is the most reliable partner of the U.S. in the fight against IS.

Update for Monday, January 25, 2016

Just a couple of items I want to draw attention to today.

First, in Iraq, Gen. Dunford discusses the posture of U.S. troops in the planned assault on Mosul. It appears the U.S. is considering embedding troops with the operational brigades, which seems to be a euphemism for engaging in ground combat, whether proactively or defensively. We've heard vague noises about this before. The assault will not being for some months as Iraqi and Kurdish forces,with U.S. air support, work to isolate Mosul from the Islamic State in Syria.

The Czech Republic will donate rifles and ammuntion to the Peshmerga. However, their real need is for heavy weapons.

Charles Glass, in Harper's, has an in-depth look at the war from the perspective of the Peshmerga, and also visits the southern front's Shiite militias, Iraqi national army, and Sunni tribal units. The fragmentation and hostility within the opponents of IS is a real obstacle to defeating it.

Jason Lyle, in Vox, discusses the situation in Afghanistan. He sees the Taliban making major gains against the corrupt and ineffectual Afghan government, and does not believe they can be driven to really participate in peace talks without much more vigorous U.S. involvement in the fighting, and real cooperation from Pakistan. (The latter seems unlikely, the former would seem to depend on the U.S. political scene.)

Update for Friday, January 22, 2016

Big Muddy: SecDef Ashton Carter says U.S. will put "boots on the ground" in Iraq. Yes, we're tired of hearing that cliche and yes, of course there are already U.S. troops in Iraq. But what he means is that they will have a combat role -- which they do already but apparently this means it will expand.

Not sure what to make of this. PM Abadi isn't sure the three missing Americans were actually abducted.

U.S. will sell $2 billion worth of advanced weapons to Iraq. (Hopefully IS won't capture them.)

Masoud Barzani says he believes Kurdish independence is imminent.

U.S. will admit civilian casualties from air strikes against IS, specifically a total of 21. As The Independent notes, "It would be all but impossible to confirm or contradict the figures cited by the Pentagon. It is also unclear how they confirmed whether or not civilians were killed in their strikes."

Update for Thursday, January 21, 2016

Taliban suicide attack on a bus carrying employees of a TV production company associated with Tolo kills 7. As you may recall, the Taliban had threatened Tolo over its coverage of their occupation of Kunduz. As of 12:37 ET, Tolo's web sites appear to be down -- which may just be a coincidence. I'll keep trying. Tolo is back up.

Denunciation of the attack is widespread.

Pakistan claims attack on Bacha Khan university that killed 20 was directed from Afghanistan where Pakistani Taliban have taken refuge, but Afghan officials deny it.

U.S. forces are authorized to target IS in Nangarhar. If you thought they didn't already have such authority, the explanation is that U.S. forces are only authorized to attack Taliban in defense of themselves or Afghan forces. "IS" in Afghanistan is really a breakaway Taliban faction. This gives U.S. forces the authority to attack them because of their affiliation, even if there is no imminent threat.

John Sopko, the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction, testifies before a Senate committee on the millions of wasted U.S. dollars.

Update for Wednesday, January 20, 2016

The UN reports that nearly 19,000 Iraqi civilians died violently between January 2014 and October 2015, with an additional 36,000 wounded and 3.5 million people displaced. Most of the responsibility falls on IS. The UN also reports that IS holds about 3,500 people as slaves, many of them women and girls kept for sexual exploitation.
The three Americans kidnapped on Friday have been publicly identified. They are reportedly held by a Shiite militia but there is no evidence that Iran is involved. They are identified as Amro Mohammed, an Egyptian-American, Wael al-Mahdawy, an Iraqi-American, and Russel Furat, an Iraqi-American woman. At least two of them work for General Dynamics and were training Iraqi troops. They were kidnapped because they are U.S. citizens. The report about the location from which they were taken being a brothel was apparently fictitious. (And the source, to which I did not link, was Fox News.)

Satellite images show IS has destroyed the oldest Christian monastery in Iraq.

Amnesty International accuses Kurdish troops of destroying Arab villages under their control, using bulldozers, explosives, and arson.

The U.S. is said to have taken control of an airfield in Kurdish controlled territory in Syria. If so, it is extraordinary that this has not been reported in the U.S. CentCom neither affirms nor denies it. This means, of course, that U.S. forces now occupy Syrian territory.

 

Update for Monday, January 18, 2016

Three Americans are kidnapped from the home of an Iraqi interpreter, reportedly in Dora. They are believed to have been taken by Shiite militiamen, and to have been employees of a construction company. There are conflicting reports as to whether they were taken to Sadr City, or in the direction of the airport. A source to which I do not link, by policy, says the apartment was actually a brothel. (This means the Americans were not necessarily an originally intended target, as militias often raid such places out of moral intolerance.) I will post an update if I can find corroboration or other details.

IS reportedly cuts salaries in half due to economic distress.

In Afghanistan, "peace talks" will open today which unfortunately aren't very likely to lead to peace since the Taliban are not participating.