The present-day U.S. military qualifies by any measure as highly professional, much more so than its Cold War predecessor. Yet the purpose of today’s professionals is not to preserve peace but to fight unending wars in distant places. Intoxicated by a post-Cold War belief in its own omnipotence, the United States allowed itself to be drawn into a long series of armed conflicts, almost all of them yielding unintended consequences and imposing greater than anticipated costs. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. forces have destroyed many targets and killed many people. Only rarely, however, have they succeeded in accomplishing their assigned political purposes. . . . [F]rom our present vantage point, it becomes apparent that the “Revolution of ‘89” did not initiate a new era of history. At most, the events of that year fostered various unhelpful illusions that impeded our capacity to recognize and respond to the forces of change that actually matter.

Andrew Bacevich


Friday, November 27, 2015

Update for Friday, November 27, 2015


Jonathan Steele, in NYRB, has an in-dept piece on the Syrian Kurds which adds detail to my analysis of a couple of days ago. Like me, Steele believes that ultimately there will have to be a devolutionary solution in Syria which will de facto give the Syrian Kurds a state. He seems to find it less likely than I do that it would end up merging with Iraqi Kurdistan and erasing the existing Syria-Iraq border, because the political parties in the two enclaves are different and the Syrian Kurds are generally more left-leaning. Syrian federalism and Kurdish autonomy would, as I said, also require detente with the Turks. Steele seems to think the peace negotiations with the PKK can be revived. However, the Syrian Kurdish state -- called Rojava -- would further unnerve the Turks because it would probably unite territory which is currently divided by the Euphrates and a zone to its west, which would give the Kurds control of 90% or more of Turkey's southern border.

Refugees from Mosul and elsewhere in Iraq remain in desperate circumstances in camps in Kurdistan as winter sets in.

Progress toward the long-delayed assault in Ramadi  as Iraqi forces take the Palestine bridge across the Euphrates and now surround the city. The Kurdish capture of Sinjar has also cut the IS supply route from Raqqa to Mosul. If Iraqi forces can retake Ramadi, the plan is to move on to Mosul which would essentially eliminate IS as a functioning state in Iraqi territory. However, as I have said many times, military success will not lead to stability without a political solution in Iraq, of which so far there is little sign. IS in Syria will also be a much harder nut to crack, because the only military force capable of real progress is that of the Assad regime, which NATO opposes.


0 comments: