The present-day U.S. military qualifies by any measure as highly professional, much more so than its Cold War predecessor. Yet the purpose of today’s professionals is not to preserve peace but to fight unending wars in distant places. Intoxicated by a post-Cold War belief in its own omnipotence, the United States allowed itself to be drawn into a long series of armed conflicts, almost all of them yielding unintended consequences and imposing greater than anticipated costs. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. forces have destroyed many targets and killed many people. Only rarely, however, have they succeeded in accomplishing their assigned political purposes. . . . [F]rom our present vantage point, it becomes apparent that the “Revolution of ‘89” did not initiate a new era of history. At most, the events of that year fostered various unhelpful illusions that impeded our capacity to recognize and respond to the forces of change that actually matter.

Andrew Bacevich


Thursday, August 25, 2016

Update for Thursday, August 25, 2016

For some reason, the reported death toll from the attack on American University varies among sources, from 12 to 14. In any event we now have a clearer picture of what happened. Following a car bomb explosion, two gunmen entered the compound. According to a witness, they spoke Kandahari Pashto. It was several hours before security forces were able to kill the attackers. Forty people are wounded, most in critical condition. A more systematic account is here, from the Associated Press, which gives the death toll (apart from the attackers) as 13, including seven students, one teacher, three police officers and two security guards. No-one has as yet claimed responsibility.

FYI, the American University is a private, non-profit institution not affiliated with the U.S. government. However, U.S.A.I.D. did contribute substantial funds to its development.

The U.S. soldier killed two days ago is identified as Staff Sgt. Matthew V. Thompson, of Irvine, California, assigned to 3rd Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne), of Joint Base Lewis-McChord. DoD reports that he was dismounted when the explosion occurred. Here is an obituary from his original home town in Wisconsin.

Update: I found this map from the Institute for the Study of War (click on the linked site for the PDF) showing the control of terrain in Iraq. It's particularly interesting how factionalized the Kurdish-controlled region is. We need to remember that the peshmerga is not a national army of Kurdistan: most units are actually militia of the PUK or KDP. You can also see the presence of Shiite militias in much of the area north of Baghdad, bumping up against Kurdish controlled areas. IS-controlled territory is now fragmented in two main pieces, in the far west around Qaim, and in the north centered on Mosul with a southward and westward projection.  We can see how this map changes in coming weeks.


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