The bottom line is clear: Our vital interests in Afghanistan are limited and military victory is not the key to achieving them. On the contrary, waging a lengthy counterinsurgency war in Afghanistan may well do more to aid Taliban recruiting than to dismantle the group, help spread conflict further into Pakistan, unify radical groups that might otherwise be quarreling amongst themselves, threaten the long-term health of the U.S. economy, and prevent the U.S. government from turning its full attention to other pressing problems. -- Afghanistan Study Group

Monday, October 16, 2017

Update for Monday, October 16, 2017

Iraqi forces seize territory near Kirkuk including an oil field and a military base. Although PM Abadi order troops to avoid violence, there have been clashes with Kurdish forces. The extent of any violence is so far unclear.

Shiite militias take the town of Tuz Khurmatu as PUK forces evacuate. There are reports of looting by the militia. Despite abandonment by the PUK, local volunteers are said to be organizing resistance.


PM Abadi has appointed an Arab governor of Kirkuk province, replacing Najmiddin Karim who was officially ousted for supporting the Kurdistan independence referendum.

Despite lack of resistance so far, Kurdish military leader Karim Sinjari tells the U.S.-led coalition that Kurdish forces will defend Kirkuk.

Stratfor covers some of the relevant history. When the Iraqi army collapsed in the face of the IS onslaught in 2014, Kurdish forces moved into Kirkuk. Although the area has long been disputed between Arabs and Kurds, it was not part of the autonomous Kurdish region prior to that time.

Al Jazeera reports that civilians are fleeing Kirkuk, also that peshmerga forces are setting up positions near the airport, and that a Kurdish commander claims to have destroyed armored vehicles belonging to Shiite militias south of the city. Najmiddin Karim is reported to have called on civilians to take up arms in defense of the city, and a spokesman for KRG president Barzani has called for resistance.

We will provide updates as warranted.

Update: In spite of the bluster from Kurdish leaders, it appears they are abandoning the city of Kirkuk without resistance. Iraqi government forces have advanced into the city, seized the provincial government headquarters, and  taken down Kurdish flags, without apparent opposition.










0 comments: