The bottom line is clear: Our vital interests in Afghanistan are limited and military victory is not the key to achieving them. On the contrary, waging a lengthy counterinsurgency war in Afghanistan may well do more to aid Taliban recruiting than to dismantle the group, help spread conflict further into Pakistan, unify radical groups that might otherwise be quarreling amongst themselves, threaten the long-term health of the U.S. economy, and prevent the U.S. government from turning its full attention to other pressing problems. -- Afghanistan Study Group

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Update for Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Kurdish forces abandon Sinjar to Iraqi government and militia forces. Sinjar was inhabited by the Kurdish speaking Yazidi, and the Kurdish government had hoped to incorporate it into Kurdistan, although prior to the IS takeover it was not part of the Kurdish autonomous region. Apparently there is a Yazidi militia allied with Baghdad which took part in the takeover.

Iraqi government forces also make further advances in the Kirkuk region, seizing the remaining oil fields and thereby reducing the KRG's oil resources by half.

There are various tales being spun about these events but Pepe Escobar has what I consider to be the straight dope. Although former U.S. diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad is accusing Iran of being behind what he portrays as an assault on the Kurds, in fact the KRG knows it cannot afford this fight. It must export its oil through Turkey, and in any case doesn't have the military capacity to resist. Furthermore it is the PUK (Talibani faction) that controlled Kirkuk, and the independence referendum was really KDP (Barzani) project. Escobar maintains that Iran brokered a deal with the PUK that had them get out of the way, perhaps in exchange for favorable treatment from Baghdad. Barzani had to accept it as well.

This probably signals the end of prospects for Kurdish independence, although one can imagine an ultimate deal that brings greater autonomy within a federal Iraq. We shall see.

In Afghanistana series of attacks by Taliban on police in Paktia and Ghazni has killed at least 71 people. The largest attack, in Gardez, on a police training center, killed 33 including the police chief. Five attackers are also said to be killed. As more than 100 were wounded, the death toll is likely to rise. Information about these incidents is just emerging, more later.



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